|
The power sector’s contribution to global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions would surge over the next three decades, if no precautionary measures were taken, Alstom director of CO2 Phillippe Paelinck said on Wednesday.
Global CO2 emissions were currently at around 30 gigaton a year, with fossil fuel electricity generation accounting for about 40% of those emissions.
Speaking at a briefing in Johannesburg, Paelinck said that the power sector produced around 11 gigaton of emissions a year, which was likely to increase to 18 gigatons a year by 2030, if no precautionary measures are taken.
“Over 60% of the power generated world wide comes from coal and gas, and if we look at the total emissions of fossil fuel combustion, the power generation sector was responsible for about 41% of the total fossil fuel combustion emissions.”
Asian developing countries China and India were planning to add significant production capacity during the next few years, and Paelinck noted that these two countries alone were accounting for about one-half of all new capacity that was being put online between now and 2030.
“Most of that planned capacity is based on their natural resources, which is coal. So they are going to add a lot of emissions between now and 2030, we estimate about four gigaton, which is as much as the current emissions from Europe and North America, in the power sector.”
Paelinck added that there was no doubt that anthropogenic emissions were causing climate problems, with atmospheric levels today reaching around 380 parts per million (ppm). The maximum levels allowed are around 450 ppm, and Paelinck noted that around 2 ppm were added to the atmosphere every year.
In an effort to stabilise the levels of emissions, a set of reduction areas need to be targeted.
Paelinck highlighted four focus areas to “decarbonise power production”.
He stated that the first area would be to improve the technology mix used to generate power, such as the use of more renewable energy.
The second focus area was around the efficient use of energy, from the consumer’s side.
The third area is about using the best available technologies for power plants, Paelinck continued.
“Today, the average efficiency of a core plant, world wide, is about 30%, while the best plants that we are studying, run at 46% of efficiency. So making sure that the best available technology is used for any new fossil fuel based installation is key. Also improving the efficiency of the installed base is a critical issue.”
He said that by using retrofit, the efficiency and the life span of the installed base could be increased, and emissions would be lowered.
The fourth focus area, he noted, was to capture and store the CO2. Paelinck stated that by capturing the CO2 at power production outlets, emissions could be reduced by as much as two gigatons by 2030.
However, the mitigation measures for the rising CO2 levels would not come cheaply.
“Reducing carbon emissions comes at a price. We have been generating power in a very cheap way, using coal, but not taking into account the impact of the CO2 emissions.”
Paelinck stated that the cost of carbon capture and storage, as well as emission-reduction measures would likely not exceed the current cost of electricity generated from wind-on-shore, when implemented on the very first large-scale installation.
“The cost will be there, but the industry has shown that it can dramatically improve, and we will be reducing those costs over time,” he noted.
As far as State-owned power producer Eskom’s mitigation measures are concerned, Paelinck said that Eskom would have to look at reducing the emissions of its installed capacity, as most of the power it generated was coal-based.
“The Arnot project’s retrofit was completed by Alstom with the aim in mind to increase the efficiency of the power plant and also mend its capacity.”
He noted that Eskom would also have to consider the best available technology on each of its new installations.
“I think the next step would be to prepare those installations for carbon capture and storage so that they can be retrofitted when that technology will be made available and fully developed.”
The cofiring of biomass was also an option, Paelinck noted, as this fuel source was neutral in terms of carbon emissions.
Eskom could also look at adding to its nuclear capacity, he concluded.
|
